Fourth Workshop on

BAYESIAN INFERENCE IN STOCHASTIC PROCESSES

Villa Monastero, Varenna (LC), Italy

June, 2-4, 2005

PROGRAMME


Thursday June 2nd


13.00 - 14.30 Registration at Villa Monastero




      Session 1. Chair: Fabrizio Ruggeri (CNR IMATI, Italy)
14.30 - 15.15 Mike West (Duke University, USA):
      Stochastic Search & MCMC on "Big" Model Spaces
15.15 - 16.00 Philip O'Neill (*) (Nottingham, UK) and N. Demiris (Cambridge, UK):
      Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemics using random graphs




16.00 - 16.30 Coffee break




      Session 2. Chair: Sonia Petrone (Università Bocconi, Italy)
16.30 - 17.00 Sara Pasquali (CNR IMATI, Italy):
      Bayesian and Classical Inference for a Stochastic Predator-Prey System
17.00 - 17.30 Havard Rue (Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway):
      Approximative Deterministic Bayesian Inference for Hierarchical
Gaussian Markov Random Field Models
17.30 - 18.00 Alexandra M. Schmidt (*) (UFRJ, Brazil), Bruno Sansò (UCSC, USA)
and Aline A. Nobre (UFRJ, Brazil):
      Spatio-temporal models based on spatial discrete convolutions




19.00 -   Welcome party (and dinner) at Hotel Villa Cipressi


Friday June 3rd


      Session 3. Chair: Fabio Spizzichino (Università di Roma ``La Sapienza'', Italy)
9.00 - 9.45 Simon Godsill (*) and Gary Yang (Cambridge, UK):
      Inference for Gaussian and non-Gaussian continuous-time ARMA processes
9.45 - 10.30 Mathieu Kessler (*) (Universidad Politecnica de Cartagena, Spain),
Omiros Papaspiliopoulos (University of Lancaster, UK)  and
Rui Paulo (University of Bristol, UK):
      Objective priors for spatial Gaussian processes




10.30 - 11.00 Coffee break




      Session 4. Chair: Mike Wiper (Universidad Carlos III, Spain)
11.00 - 11.20 Matthew Beal (*) (SUNY Buffalo, USA) and Yee Whye Teh (UC Berkeley, USA):
      Efficient Sampling Strategies for the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process:
with Application to the Infinite Hidden Markov Model and its Variants
11.20 - 11.40 Alexandros Beskos (University of Lancaster, UK)
      Exact inference for diffusion processes using MCMC
11.40 - 12.00 Paul G. Blackwell (*) and K. J. Harris (University of Sheffield, UK)



Bayesian radio-tracking: inference for diffusions in heterogeneous environments
12.00 - 12.20 Paolo Bulla (*) and Pietro Muliere (Università  Bocconi, Italy):



Bayesian nonparametric estimation for reinforced Markov renewal processes
12.20 - 12.40 Lehel Csato (*) and Manfred Opper (Max Planck Institute, Germany)



Efficient Gaussian Process Inference




12.40
-
17.30
Free afternoon







Session 5. Chair: Bruno Sansò (UC Santa Cruz, USA)




17.30
-
18.00
Hedibert Lopes (*) and Carlos Carvalho (University of Chicago, USA):



Factor models with time-varying loadings and regime switching
18.00
-
18.30
David Stephens (*) and Matthew Gander (Imperial College London, UK):



Inference for Volatility Models driven by Levy Processes
18.30
-
19.00
Jonathan Stroud (*) (Pennsylvania, USA), Michael Johannes (Columbia, USA)
and Nicholas Polson (Chicago, USA):



Sequential Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Volatility Models with Jumps




19.00
-
21.00
Dinner time




21.00
-
23.00
Poster session. Chair: Antonio Pievatolo (CNR IMATI, Italy)


Saturday June 4th


      Session 6. Chair: Jay Kadane (Carnegie Mellon, USA)
9.00 - 9.45 Alan Gelfand (Duke University):
      Multivariate Spatial Process Modelling
9.45 - 10.30 Pier Luigi Conti (Università  di Roma ``La Sapienza'', Italy)
      Bayesian nonparametric inference on solutions of renewal equations




10.30 - 11.00 Coffee break




      Session 7. Chair: Juan Antonio Cano (Universidad de Murcia, Spain)
11.00 - 11.30 Daniela Golinelli (RAND, USA)
      Bayesian inference in a hidden stochastic two-compartment model for feline
hematopoiesis
11.30 - 12.00 Jesus Palomo (*) (SAMSI, USA) and David Dunson (NIEHS, USA)
      Bayesian structural equation models with latent variables
12.00 - 12.30 Darren Wilkinson (University of Newcastle, UK):
      Bayesian Inference for Biochemical Network Dynamics




12.30 - 14.30 Lunch time




      Session 8. Chair: Renata Rotondi (CNR IMATI, Milano)
14.30 - 15.00 Athanasios Kottas (*) (UCSC, USA), Jason Duan and Alan Gelfand (Duke, USA)
      Bayesian Nonparametric Spatio-temporal Modeling for Disease Incidence Data
15.00 - 15.30 Ramses Mena (*) (UNAM, Mexico) and Stephen Walker (Bath, UK)
      Representation of some Markov Models via Predictive Distributions
15.30
-
 16.00
Andrea Ongaro (Università  di Milano Bicocca, Italy)



A new random re-labelling scheme for posterior calculations of symmetric
prior processes





16.00 - 16.30
Coffee break




      Session 9. Chair: Carmen Armero (Universitat de Valencia, Spain)
16.30
-
16.50
Andrew Golightly (*) and Darren Wilkinson (University of Newcastle, UK):



Bayesian sequential inference for nonlinear multivariate diffusions
16.50
-
17.10
Samuel Kou (*), Sunney Xie and Jun Liu (Harvard University, USA):



Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Models in Single Molecule Biophysics
17.10
-
17.30
Osnat Stramer (*) and Jun Yan (University of Iowa, USA):



Parametric inference for partially observed diffusion processes: a comparison study
17.30
-
17.50
Elisa Varini (*) and Renata Rotondi (CNR IMATI, Italy):



A sequential particle filter for a continuous-time state-space model
17.50
-
18.10
Krisztina Vasas (*), Peter Elek and Laszlo Markus (Eotvos Lorand University, Hungary):



A regime switching time series model of daily river flows




20.00 -

Farewell dinner at Eremo Gaudio






  (*) denotes the speaker