In Bayesian statistics the distinction between parametric and nonparametric
methods refers to inference problems in which one can assume the existence
of a true, but unknown, distribution for the random elements associated
with the observations. If X is the set of all possible values of observations
and M
is the family of all possible distributions on X (including the true
one, obviously) then the prior distribution, typical of the Bayesian paradigm,
is a probability law
on a
-algebra of subsets of M. Usually,
the statistician's knowledge leads him/her to the definition
(possibly unaware) of a function
from M onto
and a family of distributions
M = {p
:
} such that
({p
}|
=
) = 1 for any
in
. In other words,
plays the role of a sufficient statistical parameter:
given the value of
, say
, any further information
is useless in determining the true law (assumed, in that case,
coincident with
p
). Usually,
is a subset of a Euclidean
space, whose dimension is relatively small, and, therefore, it is convenient
to implement the Bayesian paradigm on both the (prior) distribution on
and the statistical model M
. As obvious, the statistical
methods based on that approach are called parametric, whereas the
term nonparametric refers to those methods in which
is defined
directly on M, without the intermediate use of parameters. Though
more inherent to the Bayesian paradigm than the parametric formulation,
the nonparametric one has attracted the interest of Bayesian only after the
classical work A Bayesian analysis of nonparametric problems by Thomas
S. Ferguson, published in the Annals of Statistics in 1973.
An explanation for the late interest rests upon the conceptual difficulty
in determining a distribution on M and the practical difficulty in defining
and dealing with prior distributions on infinite dimensional spaces.
Historically, the nonparametric viewpoint goes back, at least, to the famous
paper La prévision ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives by Bruno
de Finetti, published
in the Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincaré in 1937, which contains
a series of lectures given by the author at that Institute in May 1935. More
precisely, the fundamental representation theorem of exchangeable laws itself
is presented in a nonparametric form: a sequence of real-valued random
variables is exchangeable if and only if its probability distribution can
be represented as
p
(dp) for an adequate choice of
.
The theorem, as given by de Finetti, and its proof, although the natural
extension of the already known result for events, were a
cumbersome task in 1935-1937. It is noteworthy that de Finetti fulfilled
that task, because of a convenient metrisation of M and an adequate
definition of the integral on M, which came, at least, twenty years before
the appearance of the general theory of weak convergence on metric spaces,
due to Yuri V. Prokhorov.
A more direct link to the modern concept of Bayesian nonparametric statistical
method can be found in a short note presented by de Finetti in 1934 at the
XXIII meeting of the Società Italiana per il Progresso delle Scienze,
published in 1935 with the title Il problema della perequazione [reprinted
in Bruno de Finetti, Scritti (1931-1936), Pitagora Editrice, 1991]. In
that paper the author shows, in a clear but very concise form, that the problem
of fitting observations
[loose translation of ``perequazione''] can be conceptually solvable
by means either of a technique based on a nonparametric Bayesian estimation
of the true law (the estimator being a mean value of the posterior
distribution on M) or the predictive distribution of a future observation.
The major flaw in the paper by de Finetti consists of the actual lack of
examples of distributions on M which can show the practical implications
of his ideas and be ``useful'' from a statistical viewpoint. Such goals
were achieved only four decades later when Ferguson studied the extension
of the Dirichlet distribution to M and analysed its application in Statistics.
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